Sherlock Series 4: Theories and Predictions

So with the rather obvious release date of New Years Day 2017 Sherlock series 4 is just around the corner and here are my theories and predictions about what is upcoming in the next series.

What we know so far:

Basically what we definitely know so far is 2 of the episode titles:

  1. The Six Thatchers
  2. The Lying Detective
  3. ???

and everything from this trailer:


So if you go from the Abominable Bride we start with Sherlock and the gang minus a snack-loving Great Dane leaving the plane to track down a somehow alive(?) Moriarty who has taken over every screen in Britain.

So first things first, is Moriarty really alive? 

My prediction is Moriarty as in Andrew Scott from the roof isn’t HOWEVER I don’t think that ever was Moriarty, I reckon that was actually Richard Brook and Moriarty is actually still out there although he may be Richard Brook’s twin brother and the Moriarty-looking man that was living with Kitty Riley was, as he said, Richard Brook. Moriarty may have actually been someone else entirely and Richard Brook was just Richard Brook the whole time including the rooftop suicide which he was hired to perform. Or Richard Brook thought he was going to fake kill himself but then the real Moriarty sniped him from one of the sniper positions we know were dotted around (confused yet? just wait).

I have one, more off the wall theory about Moriarty, which would be that he’s actually John, now this may seem mad but I have host of reasons for this, most prominently that it would be the most Moriartyesque, Sherlock-crushing move of all time and upon reveal it would give the perfect ending of Sherlock being forced to kill John. But hey, just a theory.

What/who is Redbeard?

Next in my labyrinthine theories comes Redbeard who it is implied is Sherlock’s dog. Now, I think there may be a tertiary Holmes brother, possibly a twin brother to Sherlock, after all, the little girl screaming upon sight of Sherlock in the Reichenbach fall was never explained. This third brother could actually be the one who is using the name ‘Moriarty’ the whole time but is ‘Redbeard’ rather than the dog. Unless it is the dog, in which case fuck knows what’s going on with that.

I also have a theory involving anagrams and the IOU and AGRA but that is for another day.

What has Series 4 got in store?

One thing I think we will find out in Series 4 is how Sherlock survived the fall, after that long a wait it seemed a big disappointment in the third series to then not reveal how it was done. However, I think in either this or the next series the truth definitely will be revealed. If that was Moriarty on the roof then we’ll find out how he didn’t die as well. If that death was faked though Sherlock definitely knows it was, in the first episode he himself says “I know a real gun when I see one”.

One new character we know is coming in Series 4 is Toby Jones who is utterly brilliant in pretty much everything so no pressure there then (If you haven’t seen Marvellous stop what you are currently doing and watch it or at least watch it after you have finished reading this). There has been a bit of a drought of properly memorable villains outside of Moriarty so hopefully Jones will remedy this, the trailer already looks promising with the good sign of a creepy villainish laugh. Who do I think he is in relation to the story? No fucking clue.

It’s also clear from the trailer that Sherlock’s drug issues will continue to be explored in the next series and his unknown past may well come into play going by Mycroft’s “The roads we walk have demons beneath and yours have been waiting for a very long time”. I’d think this is likely in relation to Redbeard again but what Redbeard’s significance is I have no clue.

Another question I’d like answered is, to be blunt, what the fuck’s going on with Mary? So firstly she is an assassin but who does her loyalty lie with and can John really now trust her considering she tried to murder his best friend? My guess is she may be working with Moriarty although I’m hoping the show doesn’t go anywhere near a ‘she is actually Moriarty’ plot. That just seems too obvious for me. Another loose string in terms of Mary is what does AGRA mean? Is it an acronym or short for some sort of clue about her past?

One thing we know is that this series is going to follow the same 3 episode structure of the past 3 excluding the special. In all of the previous series I’ve found the second episode to be the weakest seeing as they didn’t tend to have the starting point of the cliffhanger from the last series in the case of the first episode or a new cliffhanger to build up to in the case of the last. This may or may not continue in this series but we’ll just have to wait and see. I don’t know which episode(s) Toby Jones is appearing in this series but my prediction would be the last one fulfilling the Magnusson role.

One final prediction I have is more about the structure of the show in general. So the first series was obviously getting everything kicked off and Moriarty introduced. Series 2 was building up his character leading up to the final confrontation. The third, and I felt, slightly disappointing, series was more of a go-between in my eyes to reset the plot and get Sherlock back in the position where he needed to be with characters in a different place. So series 4, by my guess will be bringing Moriarty back, possibly in a new form, as Sherlock’s arch-rival with the stakes even higher. Looking even further ahead to series 5, what I would think will be the final series, my thoughts are the whole series is going to be an all out war against Moriarty. The one definite I’d say for the new episodes is that they’re definitely going to be darker than anything from the past 3 series.


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